Imbalance Desk

GB imbalance price — live predictor

Settlement day 2026-11-03 · period 1 of 48 · 00:00–00:30 London

Period closes in --:--
updated 00:06

10 alerts firing

Manage triggers
  • Spike risk 80% · SP1 (now)Chance of settling above £150/MWh; extreme (>£250) 2%.
  • High price expected · SP1 (now)Forecast £174/MWh, above your £150 trigger.
  • Spike risk 66% · SP2 (+30 min)Chance of settling above £150/MWh; extreme (>£250) 3%.
  • High price expected · SP2 (+30 min)Forecast £167/MWh, above your £150 trigger.

Predicted system price · current period

£174.41

80% range £127.54 – £221.27 /MWh

LONG

NIV est -130 MWh

anchor £183.69 (traded index, shaped) · confidence high

Traded index shaped to this period£183.69/MWh (last traded £181.82, DA £188.11)
Imbalance volume estimate-130 MWh
System frequency (10 min avg)49.974 Hz
Indicated margin40,962 MW
Wind forecast8,319 MW (outturn +1054)
Interconnector flow+2,794 MW

Spike > £150

80%

Extreme > £250

2%

Below £0

0%

Probabilities come from the model's own historic error distribution, so fat tails are kept rather than assumed away.

Next periods

  • 00:30 · SP2£167.05
    LONG£101.44 – £232.66
    spike 66% · negative 0% · traded index, shaped £188.11
  • 01:00 · SP3£153.87
    LONG£69.52 – £238.23
    spike 54% · negative 1% · traded index, shaped £184.92
  • 01:30 · SP4£158.43
    LONG£55.32 – £261.53
    spike 56% · negative 2% · traded index, shaped £184.92
  • 02:00 · SP5£156.24
    LONG£34.39 – £278.09
    spike 54% · negative 4% · traded index, shaped £182.73

Future periods are priced off the N2EX day-ahead auction, adjusted for how far intraday trading has drifted from it today. Ranges widen with horizon because the imbalance volume itself has to be forecast.

Today: settled price vs prediction

model R² 0.31 · σ £36 · n 1399

Feed health

  • Elexon system pricesno data
  • Intraday index (EPEX/N2EX via Elexon)£181.82/MWh
  • N2EX day-ahead auction96 periods priced, basis +£2.88
  • System frequency49.969 Hz
  • Day-ahead indicated margin58 periods published
  • Wind forecast73 hourly points
  • Generation outturn29,823 MW on system

Latest settled periods

PeriodPriceNIV