Forecast vs actual P&L

Every settled Settlement Period: what the model said, what the price actually did, and the £/MWh a single unit of volume would have made by following that forecast — sell when the model called the period expensive, buy when it called it cheap, scored against the day's average price.

Total P&L
£7,896.69/MWh
335 scored periods over 8 days
Per period
£23.57/MWh
235 winning · 99 losing
Direction hit rate
70%
Capture 59% of the £13,381.66 available
Forecast error
£30.44/MWh
Average miss · bias -£6.13

Running total (£/MWh)

Forecast vs outturn — last 48 hours

P&L per period

Best periods

27 Oct, 18:00£243.7 → £280.13£157.27
28 Oct, 05:00£163.09 → £48.37£153.98
27 Oct, 18:30£248.62 → £276.66£153.8
27 Oct, 06:00£60.72 → -£15.61£138.47
27 Oct, 16:00£225.85 → £254£131.14

Worst periods

01 Nov, 13:30£220.55 → £349.51-£128.42
28 Oct, 16:00£243.72 → £106.48-£95.87
29 Oct, 07:30£228.08 → £137.42-£83.81
02 Nov, 21:00£211.67 → £295-£71.73
02 Nov, 20:30£221.57 → £295-£71.73

Period-by-period breakdown

PeriodForecastSettledErrorDay averageCallP&L £/MWh
03 Nov, 00:00 SP1£166.99£156.4+£10.59£156.4Sell£0
02 Nov, 23:30 SP48£176.22£167.6+£8.62£223.27Buy£55.67
02 Nov, 23:00 SP47£171.11£167.6+£3.51£223.27Buy£55.67
02 Nov, 22:30 SP46£189.26£163+£26.26£223.27Buy£60.27
02 Nov, 22:00 SP45£208.93£168.95+£39.98£223.27Buy£54.32
02 Nov, 21:30 SP44£192.64£259-£66.36£223.27Buy-£35.73
02 Nov, 21:00 SP43£211.67£295-£83.33£223.27Buy-£71.73
02 Nov, 20:30 SP42£221.57£295-£73.43£223.27Buy-£71.73
02 Nov, 20:00 SP41£219.57£246.77-£27.2£223.27Buy-£23.5
02 Nov, 19:30 SP40£244.39£249.99-£5.6£223.27Sell£26.72
02 Nov, 19:00 SP39£264.91£184.21+£80.69£223.27Sell-£39.06
02 Nov, 18:30 SP38£277.74£297-£19.26£223.27Sell£73.73
02 Nov, 18:00 SP37£272.84£313-£40.16£223.27Sell£89.73
02 Nov, 17:30 SP36£288.6£297-£8.4£223.27Sell£73.73
02 Nov, 17:00 SP35£275.07£297-£21.93£223.27Sell£73.73
02 Nov, 16:30 SP34£269.78£297-£27.22£223.27Sell£73.73
02 Nov, 16:00 SP33£265.92£295.03-£29.11£223.27Sell£71.76
02 Nov, 15:30 SP32£261.82£268-£6.18£223.27Sell£44.73
02 Nov, 15:00 SP31£236.8£268-£31.2£223.27Sell£44.73
02 Nov, 14:30 SP30£213.36£269-£55.65£223.27Buy-£45.73
02 Nov, 14:00 SP29£215.19£260-£44.81£223.27Buy-£36.73
02 Nov, 13:30 SP28£222.9£260-£37.1£223.27Buy-£36.73
02 Nov, 13:00 SP27£203.31£260-£56.69£223.27Buy-£36.73
02 Nov, 12:30 SP26£206.14£260-£53.86£223.27Buy-£36.73
02 Nov, 12:00 SP25£192.63£246-£53.37£223.27Buy-£22.73
02 Nov, 11:30 SP24£203.23£168+£35.23£223.27Buy£55.27
02 Nov, 11:00 SP23£183.14£246-£62.86£223.27Buy-£22.73
02 Nov, 10:30 SP22£194.45£166.2+£28.25£223.27Buy£57.07
02 Nov, 10:00 SP21£194.45£166.2+£28.25£223.27Buy£57.07
02 Nov, 09:30 SP20£194.64£166.11+£28.53£223.27Buy£57.16
02 Nov, 09:00 SP19£190.12£246-£55.88£223.27Buy-£22.73
02 Nov, 08:30 SP18£213.8£246-£32.2£223.27Buy-£22.73
02 Nov, 08:00 SP17£216.72£246-£29.28£223.27Buy-£22.73
02 Nov, 07:30 SP16£222£197.95+£24.05£223.27Buy£25.32
02 Nov, 07:00 SP15£216.63£246-£29.37£223.27Buy-£22.73
02 Nov, 06:30 SP14£221.61£246-£24.39£223.27Buy-£22.73
02 Nov, 06:00 SP13£205.13£176.98+£28.15£223.27Buy£46.29
02 Nov, 05:30 SP12£162.21£166.1-£3.89£223.27Buy£57.17
02 Nov, 05:00 SP11£186.74£166+£20.74£223.27Buy£57.27
02 Nov, 04:30 SP10£178.23£165.21+£13.02£223.27Buy£58.06
02 Nov, 04:00 SP9£173.91£165.23+£8.68£223.27Buy£58.04
02 Nov, 03:30 SP8£190.4£165.23+£25.17£223.27Buy£58.04
02 Nov, 03:00 SP7£178.8£182.57-£3.77£223.27Buy£40.7
02 Nov, 02:30 SP6£185.19£182.25+£2.94£223.27Buy£41.02
02 Nov, 02:00 SP5£184.62£187.56-£2.94£223.27Buy£35.71
02 Nov, 01:30 SP4£202.31£170.8+£31.51£223.27Buy£52.47
02 Nov, 01:00 SP3£192.49£200-£7.51£223.27Buy£23.27
02 Nov, 00:30 SP2£202.96£172.09+£30.87£223.27Buy£51.18
02 Nov, 00:00 SP1£192.18£192.31-£0.13£223.27Buy£30.96
01 Nov, 23:30 SP48£199.51£203.83-£4.33£221.09Buy£17.26
01 Nov, 23:00 SP47£180.3£282-£101.7£221.09Buy-£60.91
01 Nov, 22:30 SP46£197.08£166.11+£30.97£221.09Buy£54.98
01 Nov, 22:00 SP45£200.22£166.11+£34.11£221.09Buy£54.98
01 Nov, 21:30 SP44£215.55£177+£38.55£221.09Buy£44.09
01 Nov, 21:00 SP43£220.04£270-£49.96£221.09Buy-£48.91
01 Nov, 20:30 SP42£204.29£180.74+£23.55£221.09Buy£40.35
01 Nov, 20:00 SP41£224.07£189.74+£34.33£221.09Sell-£31.35
01 Nov, 19:30 SP40£225.75£191.9+£33.85£221.09Sell-£29.19
01 Nov, 19:00 SP39£248.92£198.2+£50.72£221.09Sell-£22.89
01 Nov, 18:30 SP38£276.09£211+£65.09£221.09Sell-£10.09
01 Nov, 18:00 SP37£288.06£244.23+£43.83£221.09Sell£23.13
01 Nov, 17:30 SP36£275.51£320-£44.49£221.09Sell£98.91
01 Nov, 17:00 SP35£281.18£263.21+£17.97£221.09Sell£42.12
01 Nov, 16:30 SP34£303.44£259.77+£43.67£221.09Sell£38.68
01 Nov, 16:00 SP33£281.3£325-£43.7£221.09Sell£103.91
01 Nov, 15:30 SP32£251.97£320-£68.03£221.09Sell£98.91
01 Nov, 15:00 SP31£273.25£255.68+£17.57£221.09Sell£34.59
01 Nov, 14:30 SP30£257.86£337.9-£80.04£221.09Sell£116.81
01 Nov, 14:00 SP29£258.11£320-£61.89£221.09Sell£98.91
01 Nov, 13:30 SP28£220.55£349.51-£128.97£221.09Buy-£128.42
01 Nov, 13:00 SP27£203.78£202.43+£1.35£221.09Buy£18.66
01 Nov, 12:30 SP26£200.44£201.84-£1.4£221.09Buy£19.25
01 Nov, 12:00 SP25£217.18£175.37+£41.81£221.09Buy£45.72
01 Nov, 11:30 SP24£194.58£229.89-£35.31£221.09Buy-£8.79
01 Nov, 11:00 SP23£200.24£221.41-£21.17£221.09Buy-£0.31
01 Nov, 10:30 SP22£191.66£190.04+£1.62£221.09Buy£31.05
01 Nov, 10:00 SP21£189.99£219.8-£29.81£221.09Buy£1.29
01 Nov, 09:30 SP20£194.47£165.23+£29.24£221.09Buy£55.86
01 Nov, 09:00 SP19£190.18£165.23+£24.95£221.09Buy£55.86
01 Nov, 08:30 SP18£178.24£187.66-£9.42£221.09Buy£33.43
01 Nov, 08:00 SP17£187.6£165.23+£22.37£221.09Buy£55.86
01 Nov, 07:30 SP16£197.87£167+£30.87£221.09Buy£54.09
01 Nov, 07:00 SP15£192.39£167+£25.39£221.09Buy£54.09
01 Nov, 06:30 SP14£190.44£253-£62.56£221.09Buy-£31.91
01 Nov, 06:00 SP13£210.09£172.33+£37.76£221.09Buy£48.76
01 Nov, 05:30 SP12£214.26£174.99+£39.27£221.09Buy£46.1
01 Nov, 05:00 SP11£227.02£165.72+£61.3£221.09Sell-£55.37
01 Nov, 04:30 SP10£198.96£249-£50.04£221.09Buy-£27.91
01 Nov, 04:00 SP9£195.69£192.33+£3.36£221.09Buy£28.76
01 Nov, 03:30 SP8£197.69£193.32+£4.37£221.09Buy£27.77
01 Nov, 03:00 SP7£198.07£198.03+£0.04£221.09Buy£23.06
01 Nov, 02:30 SP6£196.19£196.91-£0.72£221.09Buy£24.18
01 Nov, 02:00 SP5£205.64£178+£27.64£221.09Buy£43.09
01 Nov, 01:30 SP4£195.23£198.87-£3.64£221.09Buy£22.22
01 Nov, 01:00 SP3£200.73£250-£49.27£221.09Buy-£28.91
01 Nov, 00:30 SP2£217.84£250-£32.16£221.09Buy-£28.91
01 Nov, 00:00 SP1£210.24£250-£39.76£221.09Buy-£28.91
31 Oct, 23:30 SP48£188.95£250-£61.05£240.03Buy-£9.97
31 Oct, 23:00 SP47£183.64£197.56-£13.92£240.03Buy£42.47
31 Oct, 22:30 SP46£188.3£176.3+£12.01£240.03Buy£63.74
31 Oct, 22:00 SP45£199.06£177.22+£21.84£240.03Buy£62.82
31 Oct, 21:30 SP44£212.18£206.46+£5.72£240.03Buy£33.57
31 Oct, 21:00 SP43£221.69£213.25+£8.44£240.03Buy£26.78
31 Oct, 20:30 SP42£229.04£266-£36.96£240.03Buy-£25.97
31 Oct, 20:00 SP41£227.35£237.2-£9.85£240.03Buy£2.83
31 Oct, 19:30 SP40£247.17£260.29-£13.12£240.03Sell£20.26
31 Oct, 19:00 SP39£246.48£260.76-£14.28£240.03Sell£20.73
31 Oct, 18:30 SP38£260.17£269.07-£8.91£240.03Sell£29.04
31 Oct, 18:00 SP37£253.6£269.34-£15.74£240.03Sell£29.31
31 Oct, 17:30 SP36£247.78£216+£31.78£240.03Sell-£24.03
31 Oct, 17:00 SP35£253.87£297.5-£43.63£240.03Sell£57.47
31 Oct, 16:30 SP34£268.42£218.97+£49.45£240.03Sell-£21.06
31 Oct, 16:00 SP33£259.95£195.7+£64.25£240.03Sell-£44.33
31 Oct, 15:30 SP32£265.46£326-£60.54£240.03Sell£85.97
31 Oct, 15:00 SP31£250.03£285-£34.97£240.03Sell£44.97
31 Oct, 14:30 SP30£226.38£265-£38.62£240.03Buy-£24.97
31 Oct, 14:00 SP29£216.85£241.34-£24.5£240.03Buy-£1.31
31 Oct, 13:30 SP28£191.56£265-£73.44£240.03Buy-£24.97
31 Oct, 13:00 SP27£192.41£265-£72.59£240.03Buy-£24.97
31 Oct, 12:30 SP26£193.89£265-£71.11£240.03Buy-£24.97
31 Oct, 12:00 SP25£219.81£177+£42.81£240.03Buy£63.03
31 Oct, 11:30 SP24£216.42£265-£48.58£240.03Buy-£24.97
31 Oct, 11:00 SP23£208.07£265-£56.93£240.03Buy-£24.97
31 Oct, 10:30 SP22£203.88£265-£61.12£240.03Buy-£24.97
31 Oct, 10:00 SP21£197.66£265-£67.34£240.03Buy-£24.97
31 Oct, 09:30 SP20£201.6£175.5+£26.1£240.03Buy£64.53
31 Oct, 09:00 SP19£216.01£265-£48.99£240.03Buy-£24.97
31 Oct, 08:30 SP18£214.7£195+£19.7£240.03Buy£45.03
31 Oct, 08:00 SP17£220.43£175+£45.43£240.03Buy£65.03
31 Oct, 07:30 SP16£237.17£240-£2.83£240.03Buy£0.03
31 Oct, 07:00 SP15£223.32£270-£46.68£240.03Buy-£29.97
31 Oct, 06:30 SP14£248.85£249-£0.15£240.03Sell£8.97
31 Oct, 06:00 SP13£238.38£249-£10.62£240.03Buy-£8.97
31 Oct, 05:30 SP12£218.18£252-£33.82£240.03Buy-£11.97
31 Oct, 05:00 SP11£223.48£252-£28.52£240.03Buy-£11.97
31 Oct, 04:30 SP10£202.44£240-£37.56£240.03Buy£0.03
31 Oct, 04:00 SP9£218.74£240-£21.26£240.03Buy£0.03
31 Oct, 03:30 SP8£209.83£240-£30.17£240.03Buy£0.03
31 Oct, 03:00 SP7£214.91£240-£25.1£240.03Buy£0.03
31 Oct, 02:30 SP6£201.22£249-£47.78£240.03Buy-£8.97
31 Oct, 02:00 SP5£201.07£249-£47.93£240.03Buy-£8.97
31 Oct, 01:30 SP4£187.33£240-£52.67£240.03Buy£0.03
31 Oct, 01:00 SP3£196.79£188.73+£8.06£240.03Buy£51.3
31 Oct, 00:30 SP2£205.37£226.95-£21.58£240.03Buy£13.08
31 Oct, 00:00 SP1£196.67£224.52-£27.85£240.03Buy£15.51
30 Oct, 23:30 SP48£215.92£210.92+£5£204.55Sell£6.37
30 Oct, 23:00 SP47£205.98£207.11-£1.13£204.55Sell£2.56
30 Oct, 22:30 SP46£217.68£206.25+£11.43£204.55Sell£1.7
30 Oct, 22:00 SP45£221.49£165+£56.49£204.55Sell-£39.55
30 Oct, 21:30 SP44£212.23£214.88-£2.65£204.55Sell£10.33
30 Oct, 21:00 SP43£216.47£215.53+£0.94£204.55Sell£10.98
30 Oct, 20:30 SP42£232.16£223.86+£8.3£204.55Sell£19.31
30 Oct, 20:00 SP41£229.18£223.41+£5.77£204.55Sell£18.86
30 Oct, 19:30 SP40£227.55£239.34-£11.79£204.55Sell£34.79
30 Oct, 19:00 SP39£227.46£239.34-£11.88£204.55Sell£34.79
30 Oct, 18:30 SP38£230.58£244.85-£14.27£204.55Sell£40.3
30 Oct, 18:00 SP37£241.88£192.19+£49.69£204.55Sell-£12.36
30 Oct, 17:30 SP36£232.26£244.86-£12.6£204.55Sell£40.31
30 Oct, 17:00 SP35£239.97£248.15-£8.19£204.55Sell£43.6
30 Oct, 16:30 SP34£221.99£246.24-£24.26£204.55Sell£41.69
30 Oct, 16:00 SP33£211.09£161+£50.09£204.55Sell-£43.55
30 Oct, 15:30 SP32£196.82£230-£33.18£204.55Buy-£25.45
30 Oct, 15:00 SP31£185.56£183.55+£2£204.55Buy£21
30 Oct, 14:30 SP30£186.38£184.24+£2.14£204.55Buy£20.31
30 Oct, 14:00 SP29£186.07£222-£35.93£204.55Buy-£17.45
30 Oct, 13:30 SP28£181.25£147.13+£34.12£204.55Buy£57.41
30 Oct, 13:00 SP27£175.45£161+£14.45£204.55Buy£43.55
30 Oct, 12:30 SP26£157.64£177.5-£19.86£204.55Buy£27.05
30 Oct, 12:00 SP25£167.98£127.79+£40.2£204.55Buy£76.76
30 Oct, 11:30 SP24£159.26£155+£4.26£204.55Buy£49.55
30 Oct, 11:00 SP23£187.5£153.67+£33.83£204.55Buy£50.88
30 Oct, 10:30 SP22£185.2£233.03-£47.83£204.55Buy-£28.48
30 Oct, 10:00 SP21£192.46£155.99+£36.47£204.55Buy£48.56
30 Oct, 09:30 SP20£217.54£230.94-£13.4£204.55Sell£26.39
30 Oct, 09:00 SP19£203.4£245.2-£41.8£204.55Buy-£40.65
30 Oct, 08:30 SP18£215.45£252-£36.55£204.55Sell£47.45
30 Oct, 08:00 SP17£209.92£245-£35.08£204.55Sell£40.45
30 Oct, 07:30 SP16£218.82£178.64+£40.18£204.55Sell-£25.91
30 Oct, 07:00 SP15£221.35£223.09-£1.74£204.55Sell£18.54
30 Oct, 06:30 SP14£215.53£217.52-£1.99£204.55Sell£12.97
30 Oct, 06:00 SP13£202.81£202.15+£0.66£204.55Buy£2.4
30 Oct, 05:30 SP12£188.86£190.71-£1.85£204.55Buy£13.84
30 Oct, 05:00 SP11£179.37£186.54-£7.17£204.55Buy£18.01
30 Oct, 04:30 SP10£195.84£197.1-£1.26£204.55Buy£7.45
30 Oct, 04:00 SP9£170.33£227.92-£57.6£204.55Buy-£23.37
30 Oct, 03:30 SP8£183.11£186.59-£3.48£204.55Buy£17.96
30 Oct, 03:00 SP7£189.73£200.52-£10.79£204.55Buy£4.03
30 Oct, 02:30 SP6£177.53£171.7+£5.83£204.55Buy£32.85
30 Oct, 02:00 SP5£198.39£199.85-£1.46£204.55Buy£4.7
30 Oct, 01:30 SP4£193.19£175.55+£17.63£204.55Buy£29
30 Oct, 01:00 SP3£221.15£177.5+£43.65£204.55Sell-£27.05
30 Oct, 00:30 SP2£255.54£246+£9.54£204.55Sell£41.45
30 Oct, 00:00 SP1£239.22£250-£10.78£204.55Sell£45.45
29 Oct, 23:30 SP48£238.11£256.35-£18.24£221.23Sell£35.12
29 Oct, 23:00 SP47£215.77£257.75-£41.98£221.23Buy-£36.52
29 Oct, 22:30 SP46£210.51£220.3-£9.79£221.23Buy£0.93
29 Oct, 22:00 SP45£208.6£212.49-£3.89£221.23Buy£8.74
29 Oct, 21:30 SP44£205.43£230-£24.57£221.23Buy-£8.77
29 Oct, 21:00 SP43£208.82£233.28-£24.46£221.23Buy-£12.05
29 Oct, 20:30 SP42£217.99£206+£11.99£221.23Buy£15.23

Periods with no stored forecast are shown for completeness but are not scored. P&L is per MWh of volume moved and excludes trading costs and imbalance exposure on the rest of your position.