Intraday replay — trading the move, not just the print
Every period starts square. The desk replays the recorded tape of tradable prices, five minutes apart, with the forecast exactly as it stood at each timestamp — nothing later is ever used. Predicted edge is the forecast minus the price you could clear at. A trust score, built only from how similar calls actually performed in earlier settled periods, decides whether to act and whether to keep anything past gate closure.
Trade the continuous market on predicted edge and close the book at the last tradable price before gate closure. No imbalance exposure at all.
Same continuous trading, but hold the position into imbalance when the trust score and edge at the gate both clear their thresholds.
Take the signalled position at the gate every period and settle it at the imbalance price.
Cumulative P&L: flat by T-15 vs carry on conviction vs always carry
Where the conviction bar should sit
Total P&L if the only change is the trust needed to hold a position past gate closure. Everything else stays as set above.
| Trust bar | Carried | Carry hit rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0 | — | -£9,502 |
| 15% | 0 | — | -£9,502 |
| 30% | 0 | — | -£9,502 |
| 45% | 0 | — | -£9,502 |
| 60% | 0 | — | -£9,502 |
| 75% | 0 | — | -£9,502 |
| 90% | 0 | — | -£9,502 |
How much edge is worth opening for
Continuous-trading P&L (flat by T-15) at each minimum edge, with how much trading that implies.
| Min edge | Periods traded | Legs | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| £0 | 311 | 1379 | -£23,980 |
| £5 | 306 | 1198 | -£19,099 |
| £10 | 238 | 703 | -£9,502 |
| £15 | 180 | 539 | -£8,122 |
| £20 | 50 | 124 | -£453 |
| £30 | 49 | 124 | -£254 |
| £45 | 38 | 100 | -£628 |
Trust table — how each kind of call has actually behaved
Calls are grouped by the price source, the size of the claimed edge and how far before gate closure they were made. Everything here is out of sample: a period only ever sees statistics from periods that had already settled before it began.
| Bucket | Sample | Direction right | Forecast MAE | Edge realised | Trust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 10-20 | early | 1046 | 51% | £39.2 | -30% | 24% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 20-40 | early | 1020 | 46% | £43.55 | -20% | 22% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge <5 | early | 891 | 55% | £34.79 | 262% | 74% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 5-10 | early | 675 | 54% | £35.7 | 66% | 57% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 10-20 | T-45..15 | 560 | 49% | £38.58 | -23% | 23% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 20-40 | T-45..15 | 507 | 42% | £45.26 | -18% | 19% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge <5 | T-45..15 | 375 | 45% | £35.94 | -124% | 20% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 40+ | early | 364 | 52% | £55.8 | 1% | 24% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 5-10 | T-45..15 | 342 | 49% | £32.82 | 35% | 37% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 10-20 | T-15..0 | 275 | 51% | £37.14 | 13% | 28% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 5-10 | T-15..0 | 228 | 51% | £34.76 | 29% | 34% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge <5 | T-15..0 | 225 | 46% | £31.48 | -80% | 19% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 40+ | T-45..15 | 214 | 40% | £63.98 | -16% | 17% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 20-40 | T-15..0 | 202 | 48% | £45.64 | 2% | 21% |
| intraday_shaped+flow | edge 40+ | T-15..0 | 64 | 41% | £61.21 | -19% | 13% |
Observation tape — 2026-11-03 SP1
Every recorded observation before gate closure, with the state of the model at that exact time and the action the rules produced.
| Time | To T-15 | Tradable | Predicted | Range | NIV | Spike | Edge | Trust | EV | Position | Action | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:00 | 105m | £184.78 | £166.31 | £44.46–£288.16 | -267 MWh | 59% | -£18.47 | 24% | -£6.57 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 24% below threshold |
| 22:05 | 100m | £185.13 | £166.31 | £44.46–£288.16 | -267 MWh | 59% | -£18.82 | 24% | -£6.68 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 24% below threshold |
| 22:10 | 95m | £187.65 | £166.31 | £44.46–£288.16 | -267 MWh | 59% | -£21.34 | 22% | -£5.58 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 22% below threshold |
| 22:15 | 90m | £195.9 | £173.3 | £51.45–£295.15 | -267 MWh | 62% | -£22.6 | 22% | -£5.85 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 22% below threshold |
| 22:20 | 85m | £196.36 | £173.3 | £51.45–£295.15 | -267 MWh | 62% | -£23.07 | 22% | -£5.95 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 22% below threshold |
| 22:25 | 80m | £196.37 | £173.05 | £51.2–£294.9 | -270 MWh | 62% | -£23.32 | 22% | -£6.01 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 22% below threshold |
| 22:30 | 75m | £194.89 | £168.88 | £65.78–£271.99 | -324 MWh | 61% | -£26.01 | 22% | -£6.58 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 22% below threshold |
| 22:35 | 70m | £194.48 | £168.88 | £65.78–£271.99 | -324 MWh | 61% | -£25.6 | 22% | -£6.49 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 22% below threshold |
| 22:40 | 65m | £194.32 | £168.88 | £65.78–£271.99 | -324 MWh | 61% | -£25.44 | 22% | -£6.46 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 22% below threshold |
| 22:45 | 60m | £192.61 | £167.04 | £63.94–£270.14 | -324 MWh | 61% | -£25.57 | 22% | -£6.49 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 22% below threshold |
| 22:50 | 55m | £191.98 | £167.04 | £63.94–£270.14 | -324 MWh | 61% | -£24.94 | 22% | -£6.35 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 22% below threshold |
| 22:55 | 50m | £193.55 | £165.93 | £62.83–£269.04 | -338 MWh | 60% | -£27.62 | 22% | -£6.93 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 22% below threshold |
| 23:00 | 45m | £193.3 | £154.29 | £69.94–£238.65 | -480 MWh | 54% | -£39 | 19% | -£8.81 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 19% below threshold |
| 23:05 | 40m | £192.73 | £154.29 | £69.94–£238.65 | -480 MWh | 54% | -£38.43 | 19% | -£8.7 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 19% below threshold |
| 23:10 | 35m | £191.5 | £154.29 | £69.94–£238.65 | -480 MWh | 54% | -£37.21 | 19% | -£8.45 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 19% below threshold |
| 23:15 | 30m | £185.68 | £150.92 | £66.56–£235.28 | -480 MWh | 50% | -£34.76 | 19% | -£7.96 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 19% below threshold |
| 23:20 | 25m | £185.6 | £150.92 | £66.56–£235.28 | -480 MWh | 50% | -£34.68 | 19% | -£7.94 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 19% below threshold |
| 23:25 | 20m | £184.77 | £149.36 | £65.01–£233.72 | -499 MWh | 49% | -£35.4 | 19% | -£8.09 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 19% below threshold |
| 23:30 | 15m | £185.1 | £156.94 | £91.33–£222.55 | -389 MWh | 58% | -£28.16 | 20% | -£0.82 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 20% below threshold |
| 23:35 | 10m | £188.01 | £157.4 | £91.79–£223.01 | -383 MWh | 58% | -£30.61 | 20% | -£0.8 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 20% below threshold |
| 23:40 | 5m | £188.36 | £159.76 | £94.15–£225.38 | -354 MWh | 60% | -£28.59 | 20% | -£0.81 | 0.0 | HOLD | trust 20% below threshold |
Period by period, most recent first
| Period | Legs | Gate price | Gate edge | Trust | Position at T-15 | Imbalance | A | B | C | Gate decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov, 00:00 | 0 | £188.36 | -£28.59 | 20% | 0.0 | £156.4 | £0 | £0 | £786 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 23:30 | 2 | £192.35 | -£20.49 | 19% | 0.0 | £167.6 | -£73 | -£73 | £533 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 23:00 | 1 | £195.22 | -£19.44 | 26% | -25.0 | £167.6 | -£95 | -£95 | £608 | flattened: trust 26% < 50% |
| 02 Nov, 22:30 | 0 | £181.32 | -£4.36 | 19% | 0.0 | £163 | £0 | £0 | £445 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 22:00 | 0 | £185.82 | £1.99 | 19% | 0.0 | £168.95 | £0 | £0 | -£434 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 21:30 | 0 | £213.21 | -£3.73 | 19% | 0.0 | £259 | £0 | £0 | -£1,157 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 21:00 | 0 | £219.83 | -£1.41 | 20% | 0.0 | £295 | £0 | £0 | -£1,892 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 20:30 | 0 | £213.27 | £0.03 | 19% | 0.0 | £295 | £0 | £0 | £2,031 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 20:00 | 0 | £222.52 | £6.99 | 36% | 0.0 | £246.77 | £0 | £0 | £594 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 19:30 | 0 | £248.22 | £4.72 | 19% | 0.0 | £249.99 | £0 | £0 | £32 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 19:00 | 0 | £246.16 | £5.97 | 41% | 0.0 | £184.21 | £0 | £0 | -£1,561 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 18:30 | 0 | £260.36 | £8.33 | 39% | 0.0 | £297 | £0 | £0 | £904 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 18:00 | 0 | £258.15 | £6.2 | 35% | 0.0 | £313 | £0 | £0 | £1,359 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 17:30 | 0 | £254.64 | -£3.47 | 19% | 0.0 | £297 | £0 | £0 | -£1,071 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 17:00 | 1 | £259.73 | -£15.65 | 27% | -25.0 | £297 | £7 | £7 | -£912 | flattened: trust 27% < 50% |
| 02 Nov, 16:30 | 0 | £254.64 | -£9.09 | 37% | 0.0 | £297 | £0 | £0 | -£1,072 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 16:00 | 0 | £254.25 | -£3.29 | 19% | 0.0 | £295.03 | £0 | £0 | -£1,032 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 15:30 | 0 | £241.83 | -£7.15 | 39% | 0.0 | £268 | £0 | £0 | -£667 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 15:00 | 0 | £238.07 | £6.16 | 36% | 0.0 | £268 | £0 | £0 | £736 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 14:30 | 0 | £210.3 | £7 | 31% | 0.0 | £269 | £0 | £0 | £1,455 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 14:00 | 1 | £206.07 | -£10.5 | 29% | -25.0 | £260 | -£55 | -£55 | -£1,391 | flattened: trust 29% < 50% |
| 02 Nov, 13:30 | 1 | £199.53 | -£11.27 | 29% | -25.0 | £260 | -£25 | -£25 | -£1,524 | flattened: trust 29% < 50% |
| 02 Nov, 13:00 | 0 | £183.03 | £1.01 | 19% | 0.0 | £260 | £0 | £0 | £1,912 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 12:30 | 2 | £182.91 | -£8.7 | 37% | 0.0 | £260 | £83 | £83 | -£1,857 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 12:00 | 2 | £178.61 | -£22.94 | 21% | 0.0 | £246 | -£52 | -£52 | -£1,749 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 11:30 | 0 | £178.57 | £2.95 | 19% | 0.0 | £168 | £0 | £0 | -£277 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 11:00 | 0 | £181.3 | £3.82 | 19% | 0.0 | £246 | £0 | £0 | £1,605 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 10:30 | 1 | £177.52 | £15.82 | 32% | 25.0 | £166.2 | -£25 | -£25 | -£296 | flattened: trust 32% < 50% |
| 02 Nov, 10:00 | 0 | £182.67 | £1.37 | 19% | 0.0 | £166.2 | £0 | £0 | -£424 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 09:30 | 0 | £171.94 | £28.43 | 21% | 0.0 | £166.11 | £0 | £0 | -£158 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 09:00 | 0 | £175.9 | £34.62 | 20% | 0.0 | £246 | £0 | £0 | £1,740 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 08:30 | 0 | £209.06 | £26.87 | 19% | 0.0 | £246 | £0 | £0 | £911 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 08:00 | 3 | £217.68 | £18.31 | 32% | 25.0 | £246 | -£52 | -£52 | £669 | flattened: trust 32% < 50% |
| 02 Nov, 07:30 | 2 | £246.87 | £5.19 | 36% | 0.0 | £197.95 | £102 | £102 | -£1,133 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 07:00 | 0 | £243.58 | -£6.48 | 36% | 0.0 | £246 | £0 | £0 | -£73 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 06:30 | 0 | £206.74 | -£0.81 | 19% | 0.0 | £246 | £0 | £0 | -£994 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 06:00 | 0 | £229.08 | -£20.27 | 19% | 0.0 | £176.98 | £0 | £0 | £1,290 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 05:30 | 0 | £212.31 | -£41.6 | 12% | 0.0 | £166.1 | £0 | £0 | £1,143 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 05:00 | 1 | £199.32 | -£12.37 | 32% | -25.0 | £166 | -£67 | -£67 | £779 | flattened: trust 32% < 50% |
| 02 Nov, 04:30 | 0 | £183.47 | -£31.53 | 18% | 0.0 | £165.21 | £0 | £0 | £444 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 04:00 | 0 | £184.17 | -£26.17 | 17% | 0.0 | £165.23 | £0 | £0 | £461 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 03:30 | 2 | £180 | -£21.22 | 17% | 0.0 | £165.23 | -£64 | -£64 | £293 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 03:00 | 1 | £185.57 | -£14.67 | 32% | -25.0 | £182.57 | -£128 | -£128 | -£40 | flattened: trust 32% < 50% |
| 02 Nov, 02:30 | 0 | £182.22 | -£25.9 | 17% | 0.0 | £182.25 | £0 | £0 | -£13 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 02:00 | 1 | £188.08 | -£14.19 | 32% | -25.0 | £187.56 | -£114 | -£114 | -£89 | flattened: trust 32% < 50% |
| 02 Nov, 01:30 | 0 | £184.23 | -£6.41 | 34% | 0.0 | £170.8 | £0 | £0 | £323 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 01:00 | 0 | £180.78 | £0.3 | 19% | 0.0 | £200 | £0 | £0 | £468 | flat at gate |
| 02 Nov, 00:30 | 3 | £197.87 | -£15.65 | 31% | -25.0 | £172.09 | -£133 | -£133 | £524 | flattened: trust 31% < 50% |
| 02 Nov, 00:00 | 0 | £199.53 | -£30.79 | 17% | 0.0 | £192.31 | £0 | £0 | £168 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 23:30 | 0 | £193.65 | £0.81 | 19% | 0.0 | £203.83 | £0 | £0 | £242 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 23:00 | 0 | £195.79 | £2.22 | 19% | 0.0 | £282 | £0 | £0 | £2,143 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 22:30 | 0 | £196.61 | £8.43 | 32% | 0.0 | £166.11 | £0 | £0 | -£775 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 22:00 | 0 | £215.42 | £0.96 | 19% | 0.0 | £166.11 | £0 | £0 | -£1,245 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 21:30 | 2 | £206.36 | £4.31 | 19% | 0.0 | £177 | £32 | £32 | -£715 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 21:00 | 0 | £221.15 | £8.2 | 28% | 0.0 | £270 | £0 | £0 | £1,209 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 20:30 | 0 | £214.23 | -£4.12 | 19% | 0.0 | £180.74 | £0 | £0 | £825 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 20:00 | 0 | £224.63 | £5.12 | 29% | 0.0 | £189.74 | £0 | £0 | -£885 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 19:30 | 2 | £248.03 | £20.65 | 17% | 0.0 | £191.9 | £14 | £14 | -£1,402 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 19:00 | 0 | £256.69 | £0.81 | 19% | 0.0 | £198.2 | £0 | £0 | -£1,475 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 18:30 | 1 | £266.21 | -£10.2 | 32% | -25.0 | £211 | -£25 | -£25 | £1,368 | flattened: trust 32% < 50% |
| 01 Nov, 18:00 | 2 | £249.64 | £6.86 | 25% | 0.0 | £244.23 | £19 | £19 | -£129 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 17:30 | 2 | £264.92 | £0.36 | 18% | 0.0 | £320 | -£64 | -£64 | £1,300 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 17:00 | 1 | £269.61 | -£14.96 | 32% | -25.0 | £263.21 | -£22 | -£22 | £151 | flattened: trust 32% < 50% |
| 01 Nov, 16:30 | 0 | £265.14 | £4.79 | 19% | 0.0 | £259.77 | £0 | £0 | -£147 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 16:00 | 5 | £273.39 | -£10.51 | 33% | -25.0 | £325 | £22 | £22 | -£1,256 | flattened: trust 33% < 50% |
| 01 Nov, 15:30 | 2 | £256.98 | -£27.58 | 17% | 0.0 | £320 | -£120 | -£120 | -£1,708 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 15:00 | 2 | £249.94 | -£20.94 | 17% | 0.0 | £255.68 | -£279 | -£279 | -£435 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 14:30 | 2 | £234.81 | -£20.09 | 17% | 0.0 | £337.9 | -£694 | -£694 | -£3,284 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 14:00 | 3 | £208.29 | -£14.62 | 41% | -25.0 | £320 | -£67 | -£67 | -£2,847 | flattened: trust 41% < 50% |
| 01 Nov, 13:30 | 0 | £203.29 | -£27.52 | 20% | 0.0 | £349.51 | £0 | £0 | -£3,668 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 13:00 | 2 | £200.44 | £4.01 | 18% | 0.0 | £202.43 | -£51 | -£51 | -£13 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 12:30 | 3 | £195.37 | -£11.43 | 42% | -25.0 | £201.84 | -£83 | -£83 | -£232 | flattened: trust 42% < 50% |
| 01 Nov, 12:00 | 1 | £193.37 | -£18.34 | 41% | -25.0 | £175.37 | -£6 | -£6 | £457 | flattened: trust 41% < 50% |
| 01 Nov, 11:30 | 1 | £192.66 | -£17.45 | 43% | -25.0 | £229.89 | -£29 | -£29 | -£947 | flattened: trust 43% < 50% |
| 01 Nov, 11:00 | 1 | £185.42 | -£16.8 | 45% | -25.0 | £221.41 | -£3 | -£3 | -£891 | flattened: trust 45% < 50% |
| 01 Nov, 10:30 | 2 | £188.47 | -£7.19 | 24% | 0.0 | £190.04 | £12 | £12 | -£40 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 10:00 | 0 | £191.53 | -£5.65 | 25% | 0.0 | £219.8 | £0 | £0 | -£719 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 09:30 | 2 | £182.13 | -£3.08 | 18% | 0.0 | £165.23 | £20 | £20 | £430 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 09:00 | 0 | £172.71 | £0.71 | 18% | 0.0 | £165.23 | £0 | £0 | -£199 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 08:30 | 0 | £189.22 | -£2.08 | 18% | 0.0 | £187.66 | £0 | £0 | £26 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 08:00 | 4 | £190.44 | -£1.17 | 18% | 0.0 | £165.23 | £258 | £258 | £875 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 07:30 | 0 | £204.38 | £5.3 | 28% | 0.0 | £167 | £0 | £0 | -£947 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 07:00 | 3 | £207.37 | -£10.25 | 45% | -25.0 | £167 | -£14 | -£14 | £1,008 | flattened: trust 45% < 50% |
| 01 Nov, 06:30 | 2 | £201.54 | -£4.84 | 18% | 0.0 | £253 | £28 | £28 | -£1,272 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 06:00 | 0 | £205.42 | -£3.21 | 18% | 0.0 | £172.33 | £0 | £0 | £815 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 05:30 | 2 | £203.28 | £2.61 | 18% | 0.0 | £174.99 | -£64 | -£64 | -£783 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 05:00 | 2 | £192.59 | -£9.4 | 22% | 0.0 | £165.72 | -£16 | -£16 | £644 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 04:30 | 4 | £194.5 | £4.11 | 18% | 0.0 | £249 | -£67 | -£67 | £1,283 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 04:00 | 4 | £198.48 | -£9.28 | 22% | 0.0 | £192.33 | -£186 | -£186 | -£45 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 03:30 | 6 | £192.86 | -£5.36 | 22% | 0.0 | £193.32 | £102 | £102 | £78 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 03:00 | 2 | £190.61 | -£4.28 | 18% | 0.0 | £198.03 | -£134 | -£134 | -£332 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 02:30 | 4 | £194.97 | -£8.54 | 22% | 0.0 | £196.91 | -£53 | -£53 | -£114 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 02:00 | 4 | £189.86 | -£4.12 | 18% | 0.0 | £178 | £305 | £305 | £589 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 01:30 | 2 | £212.07 | -£4.8 | 18% | 0.0 | £198.87 | -£256 | -£256 | £61 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 01:00 | 2 | £205.27 | -£4.07 | 18% | 0.0 | £250 | £99 | £99 | -£1,031 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 00:30 | 0 | £198.56 | -£2.32 | 18% | 0.0 | £250 | £0 | £0 | -£1,298 | flat at gate |
| 01 Nov, 00:00 | 0 | £206.57 | -£6.9 | 31% | 0.0 | £250 | £0 | £0 | -£1,098 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 23:30 | 4 | £198.19 | £3.9 | 18% | 0.0 | £250 | -£132 | -£132 | £1,151 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 23:00 | 1 | £197.07 | £15.67 | 44% | 25.0 | £197.56 | -£59 | -£59 | -£34 | flattened: trust 44% < 50% |
| 31 Oct, 22:30 | 0 | £202.97 | £8.75 | 33% | 0.0 | £176.3 | £0 | £0 | -£679 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 22:00 | 0 | £209.61 | £7.64 | 37% | 0.0 | £177.22 | £0 | £0 | -£822 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 21:30 | 1 | £210.74 | £15.25 | 45% | 25.0 | £206.46 | -£122 | -£122 | -£217 | flattened: trust 45% < 50% |
| 31 Oct, 21:00 | 1 | £211.86 | £13.12 | 45% | 25.0 | £213.25 | £36 | £36 | £83 | flattened: trust 45% < 50% |
| 31 Oct, 20:30 | 1 | £220.69 | £13.24 | 43% | 25.0 | £266 | £66 | £66 | £1,211 | flattened: trust 43% < 50% |
| 31 Oct, 20:00 | 2 | £217.99 | £7.67 | 34% | 0.0 | £237.2 | -£38 | -£38 | £430 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 19:30 | 3 | £237.92 | £12.34 | 42% | 25.0 | £260.29 | -£213 | -£213 | £359 | flattened: trust 42% < 50% |
| 31 Oct, 19:00 | 2 | £246.81 | £1.23 | 17% | 0.0 | £260.76 | £247 | £247 | £583 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 18:30 | 0 | £250.54 | -£4.9 | 17% | 0.0 | £269.07 | £0 | £0 | -£476 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 18:00 | 4 | £258.48 | -£8.51 | 36% | 0.0 | £269.34 | £272 | £272 | -£12 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 17:30 | 3 | £278.04 | -£12.48 | 41% | -25.0 | £216 | -£97 | -£97 | £1,467 | flattened: trust 41% < 50% |
| 31 Oct, 17:00 | 2 | £259.62 | £0.74 | 17% | 0.0 | £297.5 | -£7 | -£7 | £928 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 16:30 | 0 | £272.13 | £2.26 | 17% | 0.0 | £218.97 | £0 | £0 | -£1,341 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 16:00 | 3 | £253.39 | -£15.45 | 39% | -25.0 | £195.7 | -£7 | -£7 | £1,448 | flattened: trust 39% < 50% |
| 31 Oct, 15:30 | 0 | £213.21 | -£0.91 | 27% | 0.0 | £326 | £0 | £0 | -£2,832 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 15:00 | 0 | £235.8 | -£4.79 | 34% | 0.0 | £285 | £0 | £0 | -£1,243 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 14:30 | 1 | £203.04 | -£10.35 | 40% | -25.0 | £265 | -£25 | -£25 | -£1,561 | flattened: trust 40% < 50% |
| 31 Oct, 14:00 | 4 | £199.14 | -£7.83 | 38% | 0.0 | £241.34 | £234 | £234 | -£833 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 13:30 | 1 | £202.5 | -£16.49 | 44% | -25.0 | £265 | -£68 | -£68 | -£1,618 | flattened: trust 44% < 50% |
| 31 Oct, 13:00 | 2 | £202.35 | £6.46 | 30% | 0.0 | £265 | £138 | £138 | £1,692 | flat at gate |
| 31 Oct, 12:30 | 2 | £205.88 | -£6.21 | 32% | 0.0 | £265 | -£178 | -£178 | -£1,669 | flat at gate |
What this is, and what it is not
The tape is the desk's own five-minute record: the clearing price the model was riding at that moment (the traded index for periods that have printed, otherwise the freshest traded price stepped along the auction shape) together with the forecast, range and probabilities as published then. That is a real, honest, no-look-ahead record — but it is a five-minute record, not a tick record. Fills are assumed at the recorded price with your clearing cost applied to every MWh traded, and there is no bid/offer spread or queue in it yet; those columns are in the store, waiting for a feed that provides them. Expect the true P&L of very fast in-and-out trading to be lower than shown here.
Forward periods no longer sit still between prints. Every five minutes the desk also reads the free continuous feeds — actual generation by fuel (five-minute), the operator's indicated imbalance and margin for each forward period, balancing acceptances as they are issued, and system frequency — and moves each forward period's clearing price by the pressure they imply, capped at £20/MWh. Rows carrying that adjustment are marked "+flow". It is pressure, not a quote: a period that has genuinely traded keeps its exchange price untouched.
The desk is now wired to take a licensed GB continuous trade feed the moment one is switched on. When it is live, each five-minute snapshot stores the real trades for that period — last price, volume-weighted price, traded volume and best bid/offer — and those rows are marked "tick" instead of "+flow". Real trades always take priority; the pressure proxy is only used for periods with no traded print.
The trust score is deliberately conservative: a bucket earns conviction only as its sample grows, so early on almost nothing clears a high bar and strategy B looks like strategy A. It sharpens as the record lengthens.